Bitcoin bearish divergence threatens price drop below $100K

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin dropped over 4.5% on May 19, confirming a bearish divergence and threatening a break below $100,000.

• Analysts highlight $97,000–$98,500 as key support that the bulls must hold.

• A potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern points to a retest of $91,000 before any bullish continuation.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down over 4.5% from its intraday high on May 19, falling to around $102,000 in its worst daily drop in over a month.

BTC’s drop accompanied downside moves elsewhere in the risk market, prompted by Moody’s latest downgrade of the US government due to a rising budget deficit and the lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.

The decline confirms a bearish divergence and, combined with other technical factors, raises the risk of a BTC price breakdown below $100,000, a key support level.

Bitcoin’s bearish divergence hints at sub-$100K

Bitcoin’s price action showed technical weakness ahead of its May 19 sell-off.

On May 19, BTC pushed to a new local high above $107,000, but its relative strength index (RSI) printed a lower high, confirming a classic bearish divergence.

This discrepancy between price and momentum is often a precursor to a trend reversal, and in this case, it played out with a swift 4.5% intraday decline. Analyst Bluntz warned traders to “be careful with [placing] longs.”

Swissblock analysts observed that Bitcoin “grabbed liquidity” above the $104,000–$106,000 resistance range but failed to sustain a breakout.

The rejection pushed the price back into a prior volume-heavy zone, with immediate support between $101,500 and $102,500 now under pressure.

Swissblock identifies the $97,000–$98,500 range as a key downside target based on historical onchain volume and trading activity if the $101,500-102,500 area fails to hold.

Bitcoin’s H&S pattern targets $91,000

On the three-day chart, Bitcoin is forming the right shoulder of a potential inverse-head-and-shoulders pattern.

While typically bullish in the long term, this setup implies a short-term retest of the 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) near $91,000.

The chances of such a drop have increased since BTC failed to close above the critical $107,000 neckline level, the same zone that triggered bearish reversals in December 2024 and January 2025.

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A rebound from the $91,000 zone toward the neckline at around $107,000 could increase Bitcoin’s odds of rising toward $150,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.